Bert hamminga
Roulette The Capital Asset Pricing
Model Control Questions
Roulette
is played with a disk on which a ball falls into one of 37 holes marked 0-36, at random.
- Betting on 1 number (blue) yields 35 times your money if yours is the number resulting
from turning the disk.
- Betting on 2 numbers ("� cheval", yellow) yields 17 times your money
- Betting on 3 numbers ("transversal pleine", green) yields 11 times your money
- Betting on 4 numbers ("en carr�", black) yields 8 times your money
- Betting on 6 numbers ("transversale six", red) yields 5 times your money
- Betting on 12 numbers (column, purple) yields 2 times your money
The "column", "transversal six" and "carr�" bets can
obviously never include 0.
Of course, if the number resulting from turning the disk is not in the range of your bet,
you will loose your money.
Questions:
- What is the expected rate of return of "investing" 37 Euro in each of these 6
types of bets? (Remember every number results one time in 37 turns of the disk on
average).
- If these six investment opportunities were the only ones open to investors, would any of
them be inferior to another independent of what is the investor's utility
function (risk aversion/preference), and hence certainly be chosen by noone? Or does it
all depend on the investor's utility function (risk aversion/preference)?
- If there are absolutely inferior bets, and you see people in a casino making such
absolutely inferior bets, would that constitute an empirical falsification of your theory?